Extra cash won’t change Cutch

By Dejan Kovacevic, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/?_s_icmp=nav_sports
Monday, April 9, 2012

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 08: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates hits a walk-off RBI single in the 9th inning in front of Brian Schneider #23 of the Philadelphia Phillies during the game on April 8, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Andrew McCutchen is an extraordinarily wealthy young man, you might have heard. That six-year, $51.5 million extension he signed with the Pirates a couple of months ago launched him into a spending bracket most of us can't fathom, much less attain.

As McCutchen loosely acknowledged Sunday morning, "It's a heck of a lot of money. A lot more money than I'd ever be able to spend on my own."

Must be nice, huh?

But here's another way to think about all that cash: If McCutchen takes 500 at-bats a year over the life of the extension, he'd be paid $17,167 for every time he steps into the box.

That can exact a price of a different kind.

It can bring pressure.

It can have a player squeezing his bat to sawdust.

"Really? You think so?" McCutchen offered through a playful smile when I raised the topic. "You think that's me?"

Um, well, no.

And if it recklessly crossed my mind ever so briefly in seeing McCutchen go 1 for 7 and bounce into two double plays through two games of this opening series with the Phillies ... well, all was set right by Sunday afternoon: The Pirates' best player went 3 for 4 with a double, a walk and, oh yeah, a walkoff single slammed off the center-field fence in the ninth.

Pirates 5, Phillies 4.

The outcome was a thing of beauty, a second walkoff in as many days and two of three from a National League power armed with great arms.

But it was no prettier than the final at-bat alone, one that Pedro Alvarez adroitly said, "just shows the kind of player Cutch is."


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What to Expect in 2012

By Joe Giardina
Painting The Black
http://www.pittsburghsportsreport.com/
Mon, 04/02/2012

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: Erik Bedard #45 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during the Opening Day game on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

For the first four months of the 2011 season, the Pirates were relevant again. They entered the All-Star break above .500 for the first time since 1992. They had three All-Stars for the first time since 1990.

On July 18 they were in first place in the NL Central – the latest in the season they were atop the division since 1997. But the final two months weren’t as kind. They lost 47 of their final 72 games and finished the season in fourth place, 24 games back of the division-winning Brewers.

So what is to be expected in 2012? Here are some bold – and some not so bold – predictions…

DO EXPECT to see left fielder Jose Tabata take a step forward in his development as a legit major leaguer. Despite the hype that has surrounded him – be it due to the fact he came from the Yankees, or that he was a victim of that awkward false identity scheme last season – Tabata really hasn’t shown much at the major league level, besides being an injury-prone singles hitter. But general manager Neal Huntington doesn’t generally throw money around easily, and the fact that Tabata was given nearly $15 million guaranteed shows they believe in the type of player he can be, and that the double-digit homerun power will eventually come – just as long as he can stay on the field.

DON’T EXPECT to see Pedro Alvarez develop into the middle-of-the-order bat the Pirates so desperately need. Spring numbers mean little – when they are good. But this spring Alvarez struggled with exactly what he has failed to do throughout his young career, and what he was expected to work on this offseason – hit the outside pitch, recognize off speed pitches, hit the ball consistently with authority. Maybe playing winter ball would have been a good idea? Regardless of the fact he struck out in nearly half of his March at-bats, Alvarez will start the season in Pittsburgh. There is a good chance the results won’t be pretty.

DO EXPECT to see Andrew McCutchen bounce back from a forgettable second half of 2011 in which he hit .216 with a .330 OBP. It’s no secret that McCutchen is the team’s most gifted player, which was obvious even before the ink dried on his new six-year, $51.5-million contract. He is the rare talent that can work the count (.390 OBP in the first half of 2011), hit for power (.505 SLG in the first half of 2011) and run (78 career stolen bases in two and a half seasons). Oh, and he is only 25 years old, meaning he hasn’t even approached his prime. Developing into an eventual 30/30 player, perhaps as soon as this season, isn’t out of the question.

DON’T EXPECT to see Jeff Karstens repeat his amazing two-month run last season in which he went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA. It’s been written before, but Karstens repertoire doesn’t blow anyone away. His fastball isn’t fast, his breaking pitches aren’t unhittable, and even his usual control has at times escaped him this spring, with eight walks in 17 innings. Again, spring numbers obviously can be skewed, as perhaps he was working on specific pitches, or pitching to a certain location – but the fact is Karstens is a bottom of the rotation starter. On the Pirates, however, he is slated as the number two starter.

DO EXPECT to see Eric Bedard become the most significant and successful free agent signed under Huntington’s watch (not that he is dealing with exceptional company). Four years ago Bedard was making more than $7 million a year and coming off a season in which he struck out slightly more than 30 percent of the batters he faced, which at the time was the seventh best strikeout rate in the history of the American League. This off-season, due to obvious health concerns (he has started only 54 games and thrown 293 innings over the past four seasons, missing all of 2010), Huntington signed him for one year at $4.5 million. He might be one of the most fragile pitchers in baseball, but when he has toed the rubber he’s averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and hasn’t shown much regression. Is he a lock to start 30-plus games? Probably not. But against weaker offenses in the National League, the Pirates only need him to remain relatively healthy until the All-Star break, because…

DON’T EXPECT to see Bedard finish the season in a Pirates’ uniform. The benefit of a low-risk, high-reward signing like Bedard is that if he does stay healthy and perform to his ability, he will become valuable trade bait at the deadline. Contenders are always looking for starting pitching, especially when it’s available in a cheap, pro-rated one-year deal.

Read more: http://www.pittsburghsportsreport.com/PSR/node/4234

Pirates must dig deep for runs

By Dejan Kovacevic, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Friday, April 6, 2012

Pirates pinch hitter Nate McLouth strikes out in front of Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz during the eighth inning Thursday at PNC Park.
(Christopher Horner/Tribune-Review)


It spoke volumes that a pinch-hit at-bat by Nate McLouth put the biggest charge into the PNC Park-record 39,585 watching the Pirates` 126th season opener Thursday.

Not the strikeout that followed.

The at-bat itself.

It started with polite applause as McLouth was summoned on deck in the eighth inning, the Pirates having a man aboard and trailing the great Roy Halladay and the Phillies by a run. It then grew to a full-throated ovation when McLouth was announced. And by the time he stepped into the box, some folks were standing.

Not just in the stands. You should have seen the home dugout.

"Oh, we were totally into it," fellow outfielder Andrew McCutchen said. "That was awesome."

It was a neat moment. Really was. McLouth was a popular All-Star performer with the Pirates before plunging into Mendoza territory in two-plus seasons with the Braves. People clearly remembered and respected what he did here.

"For these fans to do that … that was so cool," McLouth would say in a quiet clubhouse. "I was trying not to think about it because I was locked into the game. But it means a lot. I just wish it would have been a different outcome."

Right. The outcome.

Turns out McLouth`s smoked liner for a foul ball on Halladay`s first pitch would be one of just four — count `em, four — hard-hit balls all day for the home side. No kidding. Neil Walker and Clint Barmes swatted balls to the track in left, and pitcher Erik Bedard lined out.

It was worse than that, actually. After Alex Presley opened the first inning with a soft single and Jose Tabata reached on a sweet bunt, all the rest of the Pirates` at-bats produced zero runs, zero hits, zero walks, seven balls getting as far as the outfield and, hey, those two hit batsmen.

Where have you gone, Jason Kendall`s elbow guard?

That`s why the fans rose to their feet for McLouth.

That`s also why, in a pleasant surprise, they warmly welcomed struggling Pedro Alvarez for his first at-bat. Funny, but it might have been the Pirates` best all day. Alvarez fought through seven pitches — the most Halladay threw to anyone — before flying out.

"Great at-bat," bench coach Jeff Banister said. "It`s what we want to see."

Pulling hard for struggling players is the stuff of a fan base fully aware that this offense will need to find hits under every overturned couch pillow.


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PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: A general view of the home plate gate at PNC Park prior to the Opening Day game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: A general view of PNC Park during the Opening Day game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: Pedro Alvarez #24 of the Pittsburgh Pirates signs autographs for fans prior to the Opening Day game against the Philadelphia Phillies on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: Erik Bedard #45 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws the first pitch of the game to home plate in front of Shane Victorino #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies during the Opening Day game on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: Roy Halladay #34 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the Opening Day game on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 05: Ty Wigginton #24 of the Philadelphia Phillies slides safely into home plate to score in front of Rod Barajas #26 of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 7th inning during the Opening Day game on April 5, 2012 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

It's 82 or bust for Bucs

By Joe Starkey, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/?_s_icmp=nav_sports
Thursday, April 5, 2012

In this image made with a fisheye lens, members of the media line the dugout area and watch as the Pittsburgh Pirates have a practice session at PNC Park, Wednesday, April 4, 2012, in preparation for Thursday's opening day baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies in Pittsburgh. (AP)

Clint Hurdle, the second-year manager, insists his team is "better" than it was last season in all facets offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen and bench.

Neal Huntington, the fifth-year general manager, says the club is ready to make "another big step."

Bob Nutting, the sixth-year principal owner, speaks of a different "expectation level."

What's it all mean in terms of won-loss record for the 2012 Pirates?

Well, nobody wants to get that specific. Which is just as well. The last time a Pirates official pegged a win total, it was then-owner Kevin McClatchy predicting 90 wins in 2000.

He was only 21 off.

Certainly, nobody wants to mention the magic number, even if we all know what it is.

Eighty-two.

That's right, 82 wins. A 10-game improvement on last season.

A complicated sabermetrics calculation tells me 82 is one more than 81 a nice number upon which much of the fan base is fixated. After all, an 81-81 record would snap their team's pesky 19-year losing skid.

Problem is, it would not prevent the streak of non-winning seasons from reaching 20. Eighty-one wins would therefore be annoying, confusing and highly inconvenient.

It's 82 or bust.

Nobody's saying 82 wins should be a stated goal at Pirates headquarters. That would be embarrassing. But the rest of us know the importance of 82 and until the Pirates post a winning season, that 500-pound gorilla will have a prominent place in their clubhouse.

Is this the year?

I doubt it. But a bad division and better arms give the Pirates hope. There is always hope, especially on Opening Day.

I asked MLB analyst Eric Byrnes to put a percentage on the Pirates winning the NL Central. He did not hesitate.

"None. Zero. Zilch," he said.

Really, no chance? Byrnes amended the figure to 4 percent, which sounds about right. His analysis was spot-on.

"This isn't a bad team," he said. "I don't think it's a team that will lose 100 games. But this isn't a good team. They have a bunch of middle-of-the-road guys."

Good thing the Pirates don't listen to voices outside of their clubhouse especially the sabermetrics crowd. Consider ESPN's "fantasy projection" for new shortstop Clint Barmes:

Barmes is one of the worst regulars in baseball ... his .297 on-base percentage the past six seasons combined is ninth-worst among players with 2,000-plus plate appearances.

Casey McGehee?

Coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular his .223 batting average was fourth-worst and .626 OPS third-worst among qualified hitters.

Geez. How about Pedro Alvarez?

Among players who saw at least 200 curveballs and sliders combined last season, his .072 batting average against them was a major-league worst.

Alvarez hit .072 on breaking balls? Good thing he went to winter ball to work on that. Oh wait ...

The division has gotten worse, no doubt, but I'm guessing you wouldn't mind a middle of the order featuring Ryan "Real Story" Braun, Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart. That's Milwaukee's. Or maybe a 2-3-4-5 combo of Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and David Freese, like they have in St. Louis.

How about a rotation that kicks off with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos (Cincinnati), or maybe Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee)?

Circle those games against the rebuilding Cubs and pitiful Astros all you like, just know this: Somebody's circling the Pirates, too.

Injuries obviously could be an equalizer. Alvarez could be one, too and I'm expecting Andrew McCutchen to leap toward MVP-like numbers but the biggest key, as always, is starting pitching.

Incredible pitching is why the Pirates were in first place in late July. Horrific pitching is why they crumbled.

Erik Bedard, A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton have top-starter stuff without top-starter resumes. If they stay healthy, and if some combination of Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia and James McDonald is respectable, all bets are off.

I'm betting on 72-90 again but there's always hope. Especially on Opening Day.

McCutchen investment a good one for Pirates

Owner Bob Nutting made a bold move in upgrading the Pirates' talent portfolio by locking up one of their core young pieces. The question is, was it a sound strategy?

By Ron Cook, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/
March 6, 2012

BRADENTON, FL - FEBRUARY 26: Outfielder Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates poses for a photo during photo day at Pirate City on February 26, 2012 in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Go back to November 2000. The Pirates, on the verge of moving into beautiful new PNC Park, lived up to their promise to keep their star player by signing catcher Jason Kendall to a six-year, $60 million contract extension. "If I didn't believe we were going to win here, I wouldn't sign here, no matter how much money they gave me," Kendall said at the time. "It's going to happen here. I've just got that feeling."

The Kendall contract crippled the Pirates and set them back for years. You might have heard they still haven't won.

Go back to November 2005. The Pirates bought out the arbitration years of slugging left fielder Jason Bay with a four-year, $18.5 million contract. "This is one of the best days of my life," Bay said.

The Pirates traded Bay to the Boston Red Sox in July 2008 for what has amounted to, at least to this point, next to nothing.

And we're supposed to be excited about the Andrew McCutchen deal?

Yes, actually.

You should love the deal.

McCutchen, just 25, is one of baseball's most dynamic young players. He's much more than a singles hitter, as Kendall was, and much more of a complete player than Bay. He has a wonderful combination of speed and power, the best this city has seen in a player other than Barry Bonds in the past quarter-century. He can hit home runs and drive in runs; he had 23 homers and 89 RBIs last season. He should be able to hit for average; his .216 limp to the finish line after the All-Star break last season was an aberration. He should steal at least 30 bases, if not 40. He covers acres in center field.

It is worth repeating:

You should love this contract.

Pirates owner Bob Nutting -- much-maligned and deservedly so for his hesitancy to spend money to field a competitive team -- showed something by buying out not just McCutchen's three arbitration years but also his first two years of free agency through the 2017 season. The six-year deal, first reported Monday morning by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, is worth $51.5 million. The team also has an option on McCutchen for $14.75 million in '18.


Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/12066/1214737-87.stm#ixzz1oLjBScVm

Next step for Pirates is losing with style

By Jeff Passan
http://sports.yahoo.com/
January 13, 2012

2011 record: 72-90
Finish: Fourth place, NL Central
2011 final payroll: $51.8 million
Estimated 2012 opening day payroll: $44 million
Yahoo! Sports’ offseason rank: 27th

Andrew McCutchen celebrates his first inning solo home run with Neil Walker against the Houston Astros during the game on September 7, 2011 at PNC Park. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America)

To capitalize on the steps the Pittsburgh Pirates took last year, they went into this offseason with a plan: emulate the Houston Astros’ “Killer B’s” core of the 1990s. Fine, maybe not. Though what other explanation can the Pirates put forth after their big offseason maneuvers consisted of signing Clint Barmes, Erik Bedard and Rod Barajas – or, as they’re regarded around the sport, Blah, Blah and Blah.

Serviceable pieces they are. The centerpiece of a plan for a team that swears it’s committed to breaking a streak of losing seasons that could reach two decades this year? Not quite. The Pirates work within a budget. That budget calls for skinflint upgrades, if you want to call them that. Owners of bad teams have two choices: spend money in hopes of improving and drawing fans or skimp on payroll and pray management can fix things on the cheap. Pittsburgh owner Bob Nutting hails from school No. 2.

And so the Pirates gave Barmes $10.5 million (!) to play shortstop the next two years, Bedard $4.5 million for his cocktail of solid pitching and disabled-list frustration, and Barajas $4 million to not get on base. The Pirates also placed a $1.75 million bet on Nate McLouth not having lost all semblance of baseball skills, as it looked he had over the last 2½ years.

That is more than $20 million to essentially stay the same. Ronny Cedeno may not have Barmes’ pop; he also signed with the Mets for $1.1 million and has every bit the glove. Bedard replaces Paul Maholm, a homegrown player who commanded only a quarter-million more and offsets Bedard’s ceiling with consistency. Barajas certainly can catch the ball better than Ryan Doumit; he can’t hit like him, and Doumit went to Minnesota for $1 million less.

Gone, too, are Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee, the remnants of last season’s ill-advised go-for-it push in July. The Pirates sensed the NL Central was winnable when they were 53-47 and tied for first place July 25. They finished 24 games behind Milwaukee.

And neither of the three Blahs nor McLouth nor Casey McGehee, acquired in a trade for Jose Veras, can help change that. The Pirates exit this offseason as they entered it: hampered by, for lack of a better term, their utter Pirateness.

Reality check

The problem here, of course, is that the beginnings of a decent core do exist in Pittsburgh. Any team with Andrew McCutchen in center field cannot claim a bare cupboard. Neil Walker is among the 10 best second basemen in the major leagues. McCutchen is 25. Walker is 26. And by essentially throwing 2012, the Pirates are wasting a season of their best players’ primes and bringing them one year closer to free agency.

Pittsburgh needs to lock up McCutchen and Walker soon, which necessitates Nutting spending money, to which he has shown an aversion bordering on phobia. If Nutting throws a Justin Upton-level deal at McCutchen – six years and $60 million, buying out three years of free agency – it would be tough to turn down and guarantee the Pirates an All-Star-caliber center fielder through his prime. Walker’s case is a bit dodgier, especially since he remains a year from arbitration, but no harm in trying. The Pirates’ savvy spending in the draft and international free agency is no longer possible thanks to the new collective-bargaining agreement, which could free up a nice chunk of change for McCutchen and Walker.

Because with those two anchoring the middle of the field as well as the lineup, the Pirates can start building. Maybe Pedro Alvarez decides being fat isn’t as desirable as not being fat and regains his power swing. Perhaps Jose Tabata evolves from soft-swinging corner outfielder to something valuable. Who knows? Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton could be late bloomers in the Pirates’ rotation, not severe regression candidates because of their awful strikeout rates. Relying on Morton in particular is risky on account of his high walk rate and almost-unsustainable home run rate.

Unless outfielder Alex Presley is a giant anomaly – the slugging 5-foot-9 outfielder – he’ll prove himself little more than a fourth outfielder in April. By which time the Pirates could again find themselves in a familiar spot toward the bottom of the division. Even if some talent feathers its way through the roster, Pittsburgh is dreadful in the field and bad on the basepaths. Its pitchers don’t strike out anyone and its hitters strike out way too much, especially for a group without the home run totals that can make Ks palatable.

“They’re sloppy,” one scout said, and that sounds about right. It takes institutional inadequacy to go 20 years without a winning season, and part of it goes back to the culture. If a team knows it can’t spend money, it must not just preach but practice the things in its realm: the defense, the baserunning, the strikethrowing – the fundamentals. It’s incumbent upon manager Clint Hurdle and GM Neal Huntington to stress this. Because even if they’re going to lose for another year – and they will – the Pirates don’t have to look like a mess doing it.

Savior

Hurry up, Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole. Doesn’t matter that Taillon is 20 and Cole 21, that Taillon has a year of professional ball under his belt and Cole not a single pitch. They are the best pitching-prospect duo in baseball, and even if odds say they’re not both going to be aces, the possibility of slotting them at the top of a rotation for six years makes the Pirates’ future far more palatable. Cole is the likelier of the two to reach the big leagues this season, perhaps less than a year after Pittsburgh chose him No. 1 in the draft. Taillon, the No. 2 pick in 2010, needs seasoning after spending last season in Class A. His arrival is likelier late 2013 or 2014. Still, it’s something, and with outfielders Josh Bell, Starling Marte and Robbie Grossman, plus more starting-pitching possibilities, the Pirates do boast one of the better farm systems in baseball. They’ve shown interest in Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, too, though at his expected $40 million price tag? Don’t forget: These still are the Pirates.

Pirates in Haiku

Two more losing years
And Pittsburgh’s futility
Can legally drink

NL Central spring training preview

By Cliff Corcoran
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/
February 16, 2012

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Big Question: Is Pedro Alvarez still a future star?

A year ago, Alvarez was coming off the big September surge that capped his rookie season, and was ripe with all of the promise one might expect from a slugger who was the second-overall pick in the 2008 draft and a top 10 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2010 season.

In 2011, however, Alvarez didn't hit at all. He was batting .208/.283/.304 with just two home runs when a quadriceps injury shelved him for two months, and he was even worse after he returned, hitting just .173/.260/.273 with two more taters over his final 124 plate appearances, which surrounded a brief late-August demotion.

There was no silver-lining to that performance. Alvarez didn't just struggle, he was the 10th-worst hitter in baseball out of the 306 with 250 or more plate appearances last year, posting a 56 OPS+ (100 is average) that matched Adam Dunn's mark in his disastrous debut season with the White Sox. Alvarez is now 25 and a career .230/.304/.392 hitter in the major leagues. This is a player who was supposed to be a pillar of the Pirates rebuilding, a player many ranked ahead of Andrew McCutchen as a prospect. One has to wonder if that potential is still there, or, if not, how much of it remains.

The Big Battle: Leftfield

After making the All-Star team and winning an (undeserved) Gold Glove as the Pirates centerfielder in 2008, Nate McLouth was traded to the Braves in 2009 and hit just .229/.335/.364 in parts of three seasons with Atlanta. The Pirates brought McLouth back on a one-year deal this winter, and he'll likely challenge Alex Presley for the leftfield job this spring, though the 26-year-old Presley should prove victorious.

The Big Prospect: Gerrit Cole

The top pick in the 2011 draft is just one of three Pirates prospects, along with fellow righties Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia, who could grow up to be legitimate major league aces. However, Cole, who made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League after signing with the Pirates, is the only one of the three who will be in major league camp this spring.

A solid 6-foot-4, the 21-year-old Cole can hit triple-digits on the radar gun, compliments that heat with a wicked slider and above-average changeup and expects to be on the fast track to the major leagues, starting with a full-season assignment in April.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/cliff_corcoran/02/16/spring.training.preview.nl.central/index.html#ixzz1mjkdWLkZ

Photo: Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

A.J. deal will pay for Pirates

By Dejan Kovacevic, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/?_s_icmp=nav_sports
Friday, February 17, 2012

Seems there are two prominent schools of thought around here regarding the Pirates' pursuit of A.J. Burnett from the New York Yankees:

1. The Pirates will blow this. They won't meet the Yankees' demands, and they'll fall short again.

2. The Pirates will blow this. They'll overpay for this guy, and he'll be Matt Morris II.

Whichever result, obviously, will be catastrophic to the point of collapsing PNC Park.

Or everyone can just relax.

This will get done, as soon as this weekend.

And when it does, it will have been a bold, sharp major-league move by a franchise hardly known for either.

This is how the trade will go: The Yankees will cover roughly $20 million of the $33 million Burnett is owed over the final two seasons of his contract. The Pirates will cover the other $13 million. And because they'll cover so much, they'll part with no more than a couple of Class A prospects, neither among the system's best.

That's it.

The Yankees had pressed the Pirates to pay less money in hopes of getting a major-league player — Garrett Jones — or a top prospect. But the Pirates, admirably determined to give up money rather than baseball talent, never flinched.

They've known, no matter what silliness the Yankees floated through the media, that no other teams were pursuing Burnett at this level.

They've also known that the Yankees could use the cash. That sounds crazy when talking about the team with a $200 million payroll. But things are different in the Bronx under Hal and Hank Steinbrenner. There are limits to what general manager Brian Cashman can spend. Cashman's priority is to sign other players soon, and he needs the money that's freed up by this trade.

This is all good work by the Pirates, notably Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington, setting up this scenario and being set to capitalize on it.

The more meaningful measure of the trade, of course, will be how Burnett pitches here.

If he puts up ERAs of 5.26 and 5.15, as he did the past two seasons in New York, then this will be just another Lyle Overbay/Matt Diaz mess of an evaluation by the Pirates. But I don't think that will happen, and I'll unleash my inner stats geek to illustrate why:

>> Burnett is 35, and his fastball is down from a career-peak 99 mph into the 92-93 mph range. But he still struck out 173 in 2011, which is 31 more than any Pirates pitcher in the past four seasons.

>> His past four seasons have reaped inning totals of 221, 207, 187 and 190. The Pirates have gotten only two 200-inning performances in that time. Ask Clint Hurdle how much innings matter to a manager.

>> The new Yankee Stadium, a bandbox of a ballpark, allowed the third-most home runs in the majors in 2011. PNC Park, which always has favored pitchers (except when Albert Pujols was up), allowed the sixth fewest. Burnett allowed a career-worst 31 home runs last season, at least some of which would have been outs at PNC.


Read more: Kovacevic: A.J. deal will pay for Pirates - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/s_782056.html#ixzz1meUg7kyN

Photo: Antonelli/Daily News

2012 MLB Season Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Jonah Keri

http://www.grantland.com/

February 14, 2012

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Pirates fans might not want to hear about rebuilding anymore, not after two decades of losing seasons. But the Pirates scored another bumper crop of talent in the 2011 amateur draft, and few if any teams now boast a deeper stable of high-impact pitching prospects. The Bucs are a still a long shot to contend this year. But you'll see good baseball again in Pittsburgh in the not-too-distant future. And once the Pirates graduate all that young talent to the majors, they'll have a chance to stay good for a while. Patience.

LINEUP

(Bill James projections: AVG/OBP/SLG, wOBA)

RF Jose Tabata (.283/.349/.387, .328)
LF Alex Presley (.301/.346/.445, .345)
CF Andrew McCutchen (.277/.368/.455, .360)
2B Neil Walker (.273/.332/.426, .329)
1B Garrett Jones (.261/.325/.451, .338)
3B Pedro Alvarez (.252/.332/.429, .333)
SS Clint Barmes (.248/.303/.393, .300)
C Rod Barajas (.224/.274/.403, .288)

The next time you find yourself complaining about the slow pace of games, save some love for the Pirates, who've done their part to end games quicker by signing Barmes and Barajas in the offseason, thereby ensuring three automatic outs at the bottom of the order. At least the rest of the lineup holds some promise. Presley enjoyed a nice little breakout season last year, if 52 games and a batting line enhanced by a .349 batting average on balls in play can be called a breakout. Tabata continued to show enough speed and on-base ability to be a half-decent leadoff option, even as his power potential remained dormant as he passed his 23rd birthday. McCutchen's developing into one of the best young players in baseball, and might have another gear or two left in his climb.

The difference-maker here, though, could be Alvarez. The no. 2 overall pick four years ago broke in with a strong rookie campaign in 2010, strafing right-handed pitching and posting an Isolated Slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average, a more complete gauge of power output than just home runs) over .200. But he fell apart last season, succumbing to injuries and a general case of the sucks. A week past his 25th birthday, Alvarez still has ample time to reclaim his power stroke and become the middle-of-the-order beast the Pirates hoped to get. If his cruddy defense eventually pushes him to first, the Bucs will live with it, so long as he's also blasting 30-plus bombs a year.

ROTATION

(Bill James projections: IP, FIP)

Charlie Morton (176, 4.01)
Erik Bedard (122, 3.31)
James McDonald (170, 4.07)
Kevin Correia (149, 4.32)
Jeff Karstens (135, 4.38)

Sadly, the notion that there's one word in Mandarin that means both "crisis" and "opportunity" is a myth. In English, however, there is one term that covers both: Pirates rotation. For a team trying to keep payroll in check while still tossing out some intriguing arms, the Pirates have done a nice job assembling this starting five. Bedard is the consummate wild card, a very good pitcher who can still strike out a batter an inning in a good season, but also a lock to miss a bunch of starts. The question every year is how many. He made 24 of them last year, enough to rack up 2.4 Wins Above Replacement for his two employers; the Bucs landing him on a one-year, $4.5 million deal makes all kinds of sense. Beyond Bedard Injury Watch, you've got Morton, the de facto staff ace who might miss a month or more owing to offseason hip surgery; McDonald, the talented but erratic right-hander who can't even manage six innings per start; Correia, the token veteran filler who's there to eat whatever innings he can before opponents start whacking his subpar stuff around; and Karstens, the ex-Yankee who pitched a hell of a lot better (and luckier) than anyone expected last season.

That is, unless the Pirates get A.J. Burnett. Who would ... wait for it ... likely give the team a nice boost. Look past Burnett's losing record and five-plus ERA over the past two years and consider this: He's been pitching in one of the worst possible environments for any right-handed pitcher, much less one who struggles with command and leaves balls up in the zone where they can be mashed. A move to the kinder, gentler NL Central, and away from the pitcher's horror show that is Yankee Stadium's short porch, would help. Burnett still throws in the low-to-mid 90s and still snaps off one of baseball's prettiest curveballs when he's on. If this deal costs next to nothing as expected, the Pirates get a badly needed jolt of depth for their rotation, with a hint of actual upside. In a perfect world, the Pirates get Good A.J., Bedard finally strings together 200 (great) innings, Morton comes back quicker than expected, and McDonald finally has his long-awaited breakout.

More realistically, it's another trial run to see what they have, while the Bucs wait for top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, & Co. to advance through the system. Burnett aside, Edwin Jackson would've offered a nice bridge from present to future, but he took a one-year deal to play for the Nats rather than the three years, $30 million the Pirates offered him. Now, as ever, premium homegrown pitching talent is the commodity every team would kill to have; for a team like the Pirates that can't even give its money away (at least not yet), it's even more vital.

BREAKOUT PICK

McCutchen. Seems strange to predict a breakout for a player who was worth nearly six wins last season. But in his three big league seasons, McCutchen has now posted impressive power (23 homers, .198 ISO last year), a solid contact rate (84.6 percent), and big walk totals (89) … just not all in the same season. He's still just 25, and you can feel a consolidation season coming, where all of McCutchen's offensive skills come together and he challenges for league MVP honors, his team's record be damned.

IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT

Alvarez and McDonald join McCutchen in posting breakout seasons, the bullpen gets big results from pitchers not named Joel Hanrahan, Bedard stays healthy, Burnett's revitalized, and Neal Huntington pushes his chips in at the deadline following a surprising first three months. We're less than a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and no one yet knows whether or not we'll have two wild cards per league. If we do, and all of this clicks for the Bucs, we could see a pennant atmosphere by the three rivers for the first time since Kevin Young's heyday.

IF EVERYTHING GOES WRONG

Morton and Bedard can't manage 200 innings between them, Burnett pitches like the guy he's made out to be by every WFAN caller, Alvarez turns in a second straight bust of a season, Barmes and Barajas make outs so frequently that the commissioner rules they be exiled to Altoona In The Best Interests Of The Game, and McCutchen demands a trade, eventually landing in the Bronx in exchange for Bubba Crosby and the 56,182 bottles of sunscreen confiscated by overzealous ushers since new Yankee Stadium opened. Great for the fight against skin cancer, not so good for long-suffering Buc believers.

Pittsburgh Pirates: A.J. Burnett Situation Showcases Lack of Direction

By James Krug
http://isportsweb.com/
February 12, 2012

Follow me on Twitter @jim_krug

As I alluded to in my most recent article, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been so terrible for so long that even when they want to bring in free agents that could potentially help reverse the team’s plight, the players don’t want to come here. It’s a Catch-22 of baseball boobery. As obvious as this seems, I doubt the Pirates actually expected this response; I believe they stubbornly assumed they could run a team however they liked, and then immediately flip a switch, and mid-range free agents would find Pittsburgh just as desirable as any other MLB franchise. Clearly not the case.

Which brings us to the A.J. Burnett trainwreck that is unfolding before our eyes. For some unexplained reason, Burnett never included the Pirates as one of the teams on his “do not trade” list during his last contract extension with the Yankees. As I write this at 6AM on Sunday morning, Burnett is not yet a Pirate- the deal seems hung up on the Pirates’ unwillingness to part with platoon OF Garrett Jones.  Regardless of whether Jones ends up in Pinstripes, at this point, my *guess* is that Burnett will be a Pirate by the start of Spring Training: The Yankees appear desperate to unload him and as much of his contract albatross as they can, while the Pirates suddenly seem desperate to add another SP, despite having all offseason to do so.

These negotiations uncomfortably showcase the overall failure of GM Neal Huntington and club President Frank Coonelly’s tenures, and baldly exemplify the team’s TOTAL lack of direction. Consider any of the following:

1. At the start of the offseason, the Pirates let SP Paul Maholm walk for absolutely nothing, refusing to pick up his 2 contract option years, because they deemed them too expensive. Not only were the option years worth about what Burnett is making now per season, but the Pirates themselves agreed to the amounts when they negotiated the original extension with Maholm!

2. Over the past 3 seasons, A.J. Burnett has the highest ERA in baseball among SP who have made at least 90 starts. He’s 35, making $10MM+ over each of the next 3 seasons, and has a well-documented attitude to boot. If these aren’t warning flags, I don’t know what are. This potentially could be worse than former GM Dave Littlefield’s Matt Morris mistake, which helped get the GM fired.

3. Maholm (105 ERA+) was by far the better pitcher last season, and is 5 years younger than Burnett (86 ERA+). For a team that’s supposed to be rebuilding with youth, Neal Huntington has spent his entire offseason acquiring guys well on the wrong side of 30.

Which brings me to the Pirates’ ”internal options.” Over the past 4 years, both Huntington and Coonelly have puffed their chests about building up the “depth” of the entire Pirates’ minor league system. They’ve made unpopular trades to build up this “depth”, and they’ve now had their hand in 4 full drafts to reinforce this “depth.” So where’s the depth?

4. The Pirates wasted $11,000,000 on 2 years of subpar, 33-year old SS Clint Barmes, because there were no internal options.

5. The Pirates wasted $4,000,000-7,500,000 (option year) on 36-year old C Rod Barajas, because there were no internal options.

6. The Pirates TRIED to pay 36-year old 1B Derrek Lee between $5,000,000-7,000,000, because they felt there were no internal options (although I personally would rather them simply give AAA 1B Matt Hague an audition than waste money on veterans). They’re now working out 36-yeard old 1B Dmitri Young for the same reason, despite 1B being the easiest position on the diamond to find young power bats. And by the way, Young hasn’t played a MLB game since 2008…so the Pirates have that going for them.

7. In Huntington’s only potentially good free agent acquisition of the offseaon, they signed 33-year old SP Erik Bedard, because there were no internal options. They continue to pursue A.J. Burnett because there are no internal options, despite Huntington and Coonelly always emphasizing the importance of building up starting pitching depth.

8. The remainder of their rotation as it now stands- Charlie Morton, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Kevin Correia- consists entirely of players brought in from other organizations via trade (Morton, Karstens, McDonald), or signed as free agents (Correia). Huntington has yet to have 1 starting pitcher he drafted pitch meaningful innings for the Pirates.

9. The same can be said for the Pirates’ bullpen. In fact, the only homegrown arm currently projected to come north with the team in spring- RP Tony Watson- was a Dave Littlefield draftee in 2007.

10. And despite Littlefield being the worst GM in recent MLB history (though Huntington is surely giving him a run for his money), until Pedro Alvarez wakes up and slims down, the Pirates’ two best regulars- CF Andrew McCutchen and 2B Neil Walker- are both Dave Littlefield draftees.

11. Out of the players projected to start in the field for the Pirates, 3 are Littlefield draftees (OF Alex Presley), while only 1 was picked during Huntington’s tenure (Alvarez).

12. Despite their apparent willingness to spend MILLIONS on aging, unproductive veterans, the Pirates have spent the entire offseason blackballing star OF Andrew McCutchen on a contract extension, as I wrote about here and here and here and here.

This team is terribly managed. Despite allusions to the contrary, the Pirates have little to no depth in the upper levels of their minor league system. (In fact, the Bucs’ best upper level prospect- OF Starling Marte- was once again a Dave Littlefield draftee. For a GM regarded as a terrible talent evaluator, Neal Huntington sure does seem to have his hands full trying to match Littlefield’s “success.”)

Further, the club clearly makes moves that directly contradict their supposed direction. They’ve spent the offseason stocking the roster with old, declining veterans, yet gush frequently about the team’s youth movement. They let younger, productive players like Maholm and C Ryan Doumit walk for nothing, only to turn around and sign expensive retreads in their stead.

Some wonder whether the timing of this most recent indulgence (prior to Burnett, the Pirates attempted to give both Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt paydays in the $10,000,000 range, only to be rebuffed) came from Major League Baseball starting to put heat on the Nutting ownership for yet another league-low payroll. Obviously, it’s only speculation at this point, but the timing certainly is interesting.

Regardless, this team is a trainwreck, and we’re about to see the results of it for 6 months straight.

Thanks for reading?

Pirates must get Burnett

By Mark Madden
Beaver County Times
http://www.timesonline.com/sports/
February 13, 2012

The Pirates need to get pitcher A.J. Burnett from the New York Yankees.

Keeping outfielder/first baseman Garrett Jones in the process seems a good idea. Jones is a mere platoon player, and the Yankees want him. If Jones leaves, though, it opens up a hole on a team already too reliant on patchwork.

But if you've got to deal Jones, do it. If you can substitute a mid-level prospect at penalty of picking up more of Burnett's salary, better yet. The main thing is to get Burnett.

Do it for the rotation. If Burnett and Erik Bedard pitch to their potential, the Pirates' starting pitching will be even deeper than last year when it was the team's strength.

Do it for the union. If the Pirates keep Jones and pay Burnett $6 million per while the Yankees pay him $10.5 million per, it could get the Pirates' payroll over $50 million. That might keep the Major League Baseball Players Association from asking where all that revenue-sharing cash goes.

Do it for the fans. Burnett isn't Christy Mathewson, but he's a proven name from a big-time club. He's a legit No. 1 starter, at least by Pirates standards. Burnett would create a buzz.

Do it because there aren't any other choices. Pitcher Edwin Jackson turned down a three-year, $30 million deal with the Pirates to take a one-year, $11 million contract with Washington. First baseman Derrek Lee declined arbitration with the Pirates. That would have earned him at least $8 million. Lee would rather retire than play in Pittsburgh. Pitcher Roy Oswalt wouldn't even engage the Pirates in discussion.

No one wants to play for the Pirates. Ergo, the Pirates must take hostages. Force the issue via trade.

Burnett is no Cy Young contender. He was 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA last season. To some degree, Burnett was victimized by the hitter's paradise that is the new Yankee Stadium and also by pitching in the ultra-competitive AL East. He's 35, but his fastball can still hit the mid-90s, his stuff can be filthy and he pitched 190.1 innings last campaign.

Would Burnett go in the tank once trapped in "baseball hell"? Could be. But many feel Burnett would prosper in a low-pressure, low-expectations environment. The NL Central may be the weakest division in baseball now that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have departed.

If the Pirates are convinced they've drafted and signed the right young pitchers, wouldn't Burnett be an ideal two-year stopgap? In theory, Burnett would eventually give way to Gerrit Cole. Perhaps the Pirates could profit by swapping Burnett to a contender at the 2013 trade deadline.

It would be wonderful - heck, shocking - if the Pirates made a move that clearly and immediately helped the team. It would peel a layer of stink off the never-ending con.

The Yankees' big interest is dumping Burnett, who no longer figures in their plans. Believe it or not, the Yankees would like to chop some payroll. They're sick of the luxury tax.

Given that - and given that no team besides the Pirates appears too interested in Burnett - the Pirates should get the best terms possible when acquiring Burnett.

But they must get Burnett. Opportunities to get a proper big-leaguer are few and far between for the Pirates.

Then again, does the name Matt Morris ring a bell?

Mark Madden hosts a radio show 3-6 p.m. weekdays on WXDX-FM (105.9).

Take the Pirates' money, please

By Dejan Kovacevic, PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/?_s_icmp=nav_sports
Friday, February 10, 2012

Derrek Lee remains a free agent after his two-month stint with the Pirates in 2011. (AP)

It's one of the many torments of the Pirates' longest-suffering fans, the perpetual thought that somehow, some way, this will be the winter they make that big free-agent splash.

The thought was born, really, when PNC Park opened in 2001 with the promise of spending with the big boys.

That bought Derek Bell a yacht.

The thought was revived, at least a little, when Bob Nutting took control of ownership in 2007 and restored the team to fiscal responsibility with the promise that prudence would pay in the long run.

That bought Lyle Overbay for half a season, Byung-Hyun Kim for a month, Scott Olsen for a week, Craig Monroe for three spring bombs in a day, Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, Ramon Vazquez, Bobby Crosby, Chris Gomez and probably 10 other non-shortstop shortstops.

Prudence might pay, but it sure can't play.

This winter, again, was going to be the one. The Pirates flirted with first place last summer, enough to spike attendance 20 percent. More ticket money would equal bigger spending. And it did, if you consider that new shortstop Clint Barmes' two-year, $10.5 million deal is the richest for any free agent in franchise history.

(No, seriously. It is.)

But this winter has brought a different harsh reality: The Pirates have tried to spend money above their still-too-low projected payroll of $48 million — actual big-splash money — only to see free agents turn up their noses.

It began in December when general manager Neal Huntington tendered salary arbitration to first baseman Derrek Lee in hopes of keeping Lee after a strong two-month finish. The process assures he would have made at least $7.25 million, same as 2011, and very likely more.

Lee rejected it for free agency.

He's still out there, too, waiting on any of his three or four preferred teams. The Pirates are not among those, and they don't expect that to change.

In the past week, it emerged that Huntington offered pitcher Edwin Jackson three years and $30 million. Not a misprint. Not an alternate reality. It really happened, and I can confirm that every penny was guaranteed, not couched in options or incentives. It would have been the team's biggest deal ever by a factor of three Barmeses.

Jackson rejected it in favor of one year at $11 million from another losing team, the Washington Nationals.

It's a wild risk on his part. On one hand, super-agent Scott Boras set up his client to reap a huge payday with a strong 2012, and Boras additionally can wave the Pirates' offer in front of any prospective buyers. On the other hand, every pitcher's next pitch can be his last.

Another quality arm, Roy Oswalt, is still on the market, also in Jackson's price range. He won't even pick up when Huntington calls.

Yeah, I can feel the eyes rolling right now. Some cynics don't believe the Pirates really made these overtures. Or, if the team did, it was just for PR purposes.

It's nonsense.

Lee's offer is easy to confirm, having been submitted through Major League Baseball's arbitration process.

Jackson's offer was solid, too. I've dealt with Boras for years. Be sure that if anyone publicly floated an inaccurate number attached to his name, even if it's off by a decimal point, he'd protest vociferously. He hasn't.

The Pirates aren't lying. And it isn't that they aren't trying, as some suggest. It's that top-tier talents still aren't buying what they're selling.

That has to change someday, obviously. But how?

"Honestly, we just need to keep playing better ball," Huntington told me by phone Wednesday after another late night at PNC Park. "When we win, we're going to see those results change, along with a lot of other things. We have a great pitcher-friendly ballpark. We have a lot of pieces in place. But the winning has to happen first. And it will. We still feel very good about the team we'll have in 2012."

Huntington should feel good about these rejections in at least one underlying way.

Say the Pirates raised the ante on Lee and offered $10 million. Say Lee accepted. There would be no reason to believe he's committed in the slightest. Remember, right now he'd rather retire than play in Pittsburgh. An extra million or two on top of his $80 million career earnings wouldn't change that sentiment much.

I enjoy watching Lee play baseball, but I don't want that here.

And say the Pirates had topped Washington's one-year offer to Jackson by a million or so. Same thing applies. You already know he was willing to walk away from $19 million to not play in Pittsburgh.

Maybe next winter.